Opening: A Rerun of the Qatar Semifinal

After last edition’s Qatar semifinal, France and Morocco meet again. Last time, Morocco fell to a loaded France side — and this time, France are still every bit as loaded. So can Morocco get over the line?

Both squads have already been covered in earlier pieces, so I won’t dwell on them again. Let’s look at this from some other angles instead.

Form: France Just Came Through a Grind, Morocco Cruised

First, the recent form of both sides.

France laboured to a penalty-shootout win over Paraguay in the Round of 16. But would you say they’re off form and can’t score? Not really. Anyone who watched that game knows Paraguay were there to fight more than to play football, and the referee’s lax handling only made it worse — their crude fouling shredded France’s attacking rhythm into pieces.

Morocco, facing host nation Canada — a side that is relatively less impressive in quality — eased through 3-0 without meeting much resistance (as an aside, my prediction on that game was spot on; feel free to check out my earlier article). Azzedine Ounahi’s brace left Canada without a hint of a comeback.

On the whole, France just came through a hard battle, while Morocco cruised. Add in more rest, and Morocco may hold a slight edge in fitness — but it shouldn’t be enough to bridge the gap in squad quality between the two.

Spear vs Shield: The Front Three’s Damage Against the Iron Wall

In terms of shape, this is a contest of spear against shield.

France’s front three hardly need any more introduction: a 4-2-3-1 lets them fully unleash Michael Olise’s creativity and Kylian Mbappé’s destructive power, with Ousmane Dembélé lurking to pounce at any moment.

Morocco know they can’t go toe-to-toe with France in an open shootout — but rock-solid defending is precisely what Morocco do best. They also have Achraf Hakimi, arguably the best right-back in the world right now. Yet a player long rated as strong going forward but weaker defensively — can he really contain Mbappé’s damage? I don’t think so. That said, if Morocco go with an absolute defensive setup like a 4-1-4-1 or even a 5-4-1, paired with double-teaming and a little help from the referee, then whether France can break down that solid wall becomes a genuine question mark too.

Key Battle: Hakimi’s Stamina Is the Achilles’ Heel of Morocco’s Defense

However, from the Spain-Portugal match, where Nuno Mendes limped off after marking Lamine Yamal, we can see the physical toll of shadowing an elite dribbler for a long stretch. Even if Hakimi can last the full 90, how much energy will he have left for attacking?

Remember, Morocco’s attack leans heavily on his overlapping runs. If he burns out defensively, he’ll struggle to make enough of an impact going forward.

So Morocco’s key to cracking this open likely lies in a surprise strike: they must steal a goal in the first half, then weather France’s relentless bombardment. If they fail to score before the break, it could turn into a slow death — France dominating possession for most of the game while Morocco sit back and absorb.

Betting Advice: France to Edge It Within 90

But overall, given Morocco’s defensive quality, a big France win won’t come easily either. My personal call is France 1-0 or 2-0, wrapped up inside 90 minutes.

Please bet responsibly.