Opening: A Heavyweight Clash Eight Years Ago — but No Longer in the Same League

Spain versus Belgium, eight years ago, might have been a truly thrilling contest. But with Belgium’s golden generation fading and Spain’s talent pouring through, the two sides’ fortunes are no longer in the same conversation.

Both squads have been covered before, so here I’ll focus on the key battle to watch.

Key Battle: A Duel of Wing Dribblers — Who Breaks in Behind First

Spain’s attacking focus is naturally Lamine Yamal on the wing. He hasn’t scored much this tournament, and his display against Portugal last time was middling, with his dribbles nearly all breaking down. Yet watch Spain play and you still feel his presence is unusually strong on the pitch — because he constantly draws heavy defensive attention out wide, so even without much end product himself, he keeps opening up great pockets of space through the center and on the left. Add his youthful stamina, and even if he’s shackled in the first half, he can surge in the second. Last time, Portugal’s Nuno Mendes marked him well in the first half — but ultimately paid for it by limping off injured.

That said, Belgium have a superb wing dribbler of their own in Jérémy Doku. This match may well come down to which side seizes the chance to break in behind the other’s back line on the counter.

Why Spain Hold the Edge: Rodri Controls the Tempo, and a Defense Yet to Concede

Given all that, Spain — with Rodri and a sounder, so-far unbreached defense this tournament — are without doubt the side holding the advantage.

Kevin De Bruyne is a top midfielder too, but he’s older now, past his peak. He might hold his own in the first half; but by the second, Belgium’s ageing and much-criticized back line likely won’t have the turning speed to keep up with Yamal. And with a tempo master like Rodri out there, calmly controlling the first half is no problem at all for Spain.

The Biggest X-Factor: The Mercurial Lukaku

Still, Belgium have real resilience and explosiveness. Their three-goal comeback against Senegal, alongside Argentina’s win over Egypt, can be counted among the tournament’s greatest miracle turnarounds. In particular, Romelu Lukaku’s impact off the bench was striking — a man nicknamed the “Black Beast,” famous for his dual nature: unstoppable when he’s on, but capable of skying an open goal when he’s off. His timing off the bench and his performance may be the biggest X-factor of this match.

Betting Advice: Spain Around a 70% Chance, Settled Within 90

On balance, given Spain’s attacking power and Belgium’s defense, Spain are without question the side with the edge — and the odds confirm it.

Belgium do have the ability to conjure a miracle, but I’d put the win probability at around 70:30 in Spain’s favor. And since neither side is built to defend, I expect this to be settled within 90 minutes without much trouble.

Please bet responsibly.